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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.