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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."